Just ‘Sayin’ He’s Top QB

by Bo Marchionte
@bomarchionte | College2Pro.com
Published June 11 2026, 9:01 AM

Julian Sayin | Ohio State 

• Height: 6’1″
• Weight: 208 lbs
• Class: Redshirt Sophomore
• Passing Yards: 3,218
• Pass TDs: 32
• Interceptions: 8
• Rushing Yards: -44
• Rush TDs: 0

The Stable Traits NFL Teams Crave

Quarterback evaluation is often about identifying what translates from college football to Sundays. For Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, the advanced PFF stable metrics paint the picture of a passer who consistently wins in situations that historically carry over to the NFL.

Rather than relying on inflated statistics or scheme-generated production, Sayin excelled in several areas scouts consider highly predictive of future success.

Julian Sayin Stable Metrics (PFF Percentiles)

• 97th Percentile: 3rd/4th Down Grade
• 97th Percentile: Avoids Negative Plays
• 96th Percentile: At/Beyond the Sticks Grade
• 93rd Percentile: Clean Pocket Grade
• 91st Percentile: Standard Dropback Grade
• 91st Percentile: No Play-Action Grade
• 84th Percentile: 1st/2nd Down Grade
• 83rd Percentile: Positively Graded Throws
• 76th Percentile: Under Pressure Grade
• 68th Percentile: Sack Rate

What immediately jumps off the page is Sayin’s ability to perform when the offense absolutely needs a play. Ranking in the 97th percentile on third and fourth downs is elite territory and demonstrates poise, decision-making, and accuracy in high-leverage situations.

Equally impressive is his 97th-percentile mark in avoiding negative plays. Quarterbacks who consistently keep offenses on schedule by limiting sacks, turnovers, and drive-killing mistakes tend to have longer professional careers.

Another encouraging indicator is his 91st-percentile grade without play-action. NFL evaluators often view this as a cleaner measure of quarterback performance because it removes some of the advantages created by scheme and run-game deception.

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of Sayin’s profile is the combination of aggression and efficiency. His 96th-percentile grade throwing at or beyond the sticks suggests he isn’t simply padding completion percentages with short throws. He’s consistently moving chains while still protecting the football.

The lone area that leaves room for growth is the 68th-percentile sack rate. While still above average, improving pocket movement and internal clock management could elevate his game even further.

For a quarterback expected to headline the 2027 NFL Draft discussion, these metrics reveal why so many evaluators believe Sayin possesses the foundation of a future franchise quarterback. The traits showing up on film are also showing up in the data and that’s often where future NFL stars separate themselves from the pack.

Dante Moore | Oregon 

• Height: 6’3″
• Weight: 206 lbs
• Class: Redshirt Junior
• Passing Yards: 3,565
• Pass TDs: 30
• Interceptions: 10
• Rushing Yards: 152
• Rush TDs: 2

Explosive Traits, More Volatility

If Julian Sayin’s profile screams stability, Oregon quarterback Dante Moore offers a different evaluation. The Ducks signal-caller flashes several elite traits, but his percentile breakdown reveals a prospect who relies more heavily on playmaking ability than down-to-down consistency.

The good news? The ceiling is obvious.

Dante Moore Stable Metrics (PFF Percentiles)

96th Percentile: Outside Pocket Grade

95th Percentile: At/Beyond the Sticks Grade

83rd Percentile: Clean Pocket Grade

78th Percentile: 1st/2nd Down Grade

77th Percentile: Avoids Negative Plays

75th Percentile: No Play-Action Grade

75th Percentile: Play Action Grade

73rd Percentile: 3rd/4th Down Grade

70th Percentile: Sack Rate

65th Percentile: Positively Graded Throws

60th Percentile: Standard Dropback Grade

48th Percentile: Under Pressure Grade

The first number scouts will gravitate toward is the 96th-percentile Outside Pocket Grade. When plays break down, Moore becomes dangerous. He can extend plays, create throwing windows and attack defenses after structure disappears.

His 95th-percentile At/Beyond the Sticks Grade is equally impressive. Like Sayin, Moore is not living on checkdowns and manufactured completions. He is pushing the football where it matters most—beyond the line to gain.

However, unlike Sayin’s profile, there are more fluctuations throughout Moore’s data set.

The most notable concern is the 48th-percentile Under Pressure Grade. That metric lands almost directly in the middle of the pack and suggests there is still development needed when pass rushers collapse the pocket. NFL defenses create pressure far more consistently than college opponents, making this one of the most scrutinized areas moving forward.

His 60th-percentile Standard Dropback Grade and 65th-percentile Positively Graded Throws also trail the elite marks seen from the very top quarterback prospects.

That said, Moore’s profile remains extremely attractive because the high-end traits are NFL caliber. The ability to attack beyond the sticks and create outside structure are two of the hardest quarterback skills to teach.

For evaluators building a 2027 draft board, Sayin currently looks like the safer projection. Moore, meanwhile, may possess the more dynamic playmaking profile. The challenge for Oregon’s quarterback will be proving he can marry those explosive traits with greater consistency when pressure arrives.

Drew Mestemaker | Oklahoma State 

• Height: 6’3″
• Weight: 210 lbs.
• Class: Redshirt Sophomore
• Passing Yards: 4,379
• Pass TDs: 34
• Interceptions: 9
• Rushing Yards: 89
• Rush TDs: 5

Boom-or-Bust Traits Make Him One of the Most Intriguing Quarterbacks in the 2027 Class

Among the quarterbacks expected to enter the 2027 NFL Draft conversation, few present a profile as fascinating as Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker. His stable metrics reveal a passer capable of producing high-level throws and spectacular off-script plays, but one who still has significant work to do in the consistency department.

For NFL scouts, Mestemaker may be one of the toughest evaluations in the class.

Drew Mestemaker Stable Metrics (PFF Percentiles)

• 95th Percentile: Outside Pocket Grade
• 84th Percentile: Positively Graded Throws
• 78th Percentile: Sack Rate
• 74th Percentile: At/Beyond the Sticks Grade
• 70th Percentile: 1st/2nd Down Grade
• 60th Percentile: Play Action Grade
• 59th Percentile: Clean Pocket Grade
• 55th Percentile: No Play Action Grade
• 51st Percentile: Avoids Negative Plays
• 49th Percentile: Under Pressure Grade
• 43rd Percentile: Standard Dropback Grade
• 33rd Percentile: 3rd/4th Down Grade

The first thing evaluators will notice is the combination of a 95th-percentile Outside Pocket Grade and 84th-percentile Positively Graded Throws. Those are big-time numbers and suggest a quarterback capable of creating explosive plays that few others can make.

When a play breaks down, Mestemaker becomes dangerous. He has the athletic ability, arm talent, and creativity to attack defenses outside structure, a trait increasingly valued throughout the NFL.

However, the stable traits that often predict professional success tell a more complicated story.

His 43rd-percentile Standard Dropback Grade and 33rd-percentile 3rd/4th Down Grade indicate that the routine plays are not yet matching the spectacular ones. NFL offenses are built on consistency. Converting third downs and executing within structure remain critical benchmarks for future franchise quarterbacks.

Another area to monitor is his 49th-percentile Under Pressure Grade, which sits almost exactly at average. Improving his response to collapsing pockets could dramatically elevate his overall profile.

What makes Mestemaker exciting is that his strengths are difficult to teach. Elite off-platform throwing ability, playmaking instincts, and downfield aggressiveness are already present. The challenge moving forward is developing the week-to-week reliability that separates talented quarterbacks from first-round quarterbacks.

If he can improve his situational efficiency while maintaining his explosive playmaking, Mestemaker could make one of the biggest rises in the 2027 draft cycle.

Arch Manning | Texas

• Height: 6’4″
• Weight: 226 lbs
• Class: Junior
• Passing Yards: 3,163
• Pass TDs: 26
• Interceptions: 7
• Rushing Yards: 399
• Rush TDs: 1

Talent Is Obvious, Stability Is Still a Work in Progress

No quarterback entering the 2027 NFL Draft will receive more attention than Texas quarterback Arch Manning. The last name guarantees headlines, but NFL evaluators will focus on something much more important: whether his performance profile shows the consistency needed to become a franchise quarterback.

Based on these PFF stable metrics, Manning remains more projection than finished product.

Arch Manning Stable Metrics (PFF Percentiles)

68th Percentile: Outside Pocket Grade

66th Percentile: No Play Action Grade

61st Percentile: At/Beyond the Sticks Grade

60th Percentile: Positively Graded Throws

60th Percentile: Sack Rate

59th Percentile: 3rd/4th Down Grade

52nd Percentile: Under Pressure Grade

38th Percentile: Clean Pocket Grade

38th Percentile: Standard Dropback Grade

30th Percentile: 1st/2nd Down Grade

25th Percentile: Avoids Negative Plays

15th Percentile: Play Action Grade

The biggest takeaway is that Manning’s profile lacks the elite stable markers seen from quarterbacks such as Julian Sayin. His strongest area comes outside the structure of the offense, posting a 68th-percentile Outside Pocket Grade, suggesting athletic ability and creativity when forced to improvise.

However, scouts are often more concerned with what happens before a play breaks down. Manning’s 38th-percentile Clean Pocket Grade and 38th-percentile Standard Dropback Grade indicate a passer who has yet to consistently maximize favorable situations.

The most concerning metric is the 25th-percentile Avoids Negatives score. Turnovers, sacks, and drive-killing mistakes tend to be among the most stable quarterback indicators from year to year. NFL decision-makers want quarterbacks who consistently protect possessions and keep offenses on schedule.

His 52nd-percentile Under Pressure Grade is essentially average, while the 15th-percentile Play Action Grade stands out as an unexpected weakness considering how often modern offenses manufacture easy opportunities through play fakes.

That said, context matters. Manning is still developing and has far fewer career starts than some of the quarterbacks he’ll be compared against. The physical tools, arm talent, mobility, and football pedigree remain obvious.

For now, the data suggests a quarterback whose NFL ceiling remains extremely high, but whose week-to-week consistency has not yet caught up to the immense expectations attached to his name. Among the top 2027 prospects, Manning may have the widest gap between raw talent and statistical stability.

CJ Carr | Notre Dame

• Height: 6’3″
• Weight: 210 lbs
• Class: Sophomore
• Passing Yards: 2,741
• Pass TDs: 24
• Interceptions: 6
• Rushing Yards: 33
• Rush TDs: 3

The Arm Talent Is There, But the Stability Metrics Raise Questions

Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr enters the 2027 NFL Draft conversation as one of the more intriguing prospects in the country. The grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr has the pedigree and natural throwing ability scouts love, but his stable metrics suggest there is still considerable development ahead before he can be considered among the elite quarterbacks in the class.

The flashes are evident. The consistency is not.

CJ Carr Stable Metrics (PFF Percentiles)

• 94th Percentile: Sack Rate
• 82nd Percentile: Positively Graded Throws
• 81st Percentile: No Play Action Grade
• 78th Percentile: 1st/2nd Down Grade
• 73rd Percentile: At/Beyond the Sticks Grade
• 70th Percentile: Outside Pocket Grade
• 65th Percentile: Clean Pocket Grade
• 63rd Percentile: Standard Dropback Grade
• 28th Percentile: Under Pressure Grade
• 23rd Percentile: Avoids Negative Plays
• 20th Percentile: 3rd/4th Down Grade
• 4th Percentile: Play Action Grade

The first thing NFL evaluators will appreciate is Carr’s 94th-percentile Sack Rate. That’s an outstanding number and suggests a quarterback who understands pocket movement, timing, and how to avoid drive-killing sacks.

His 82nd-percentile Positively Graded Throws is another encouraging sign. When Carr is right, he can generate NFL-level throws that challenge defenses at every level of the field.

The concern comes when examining the stable traits most closely tied to long-term quarterback success.

Carr’s 23rd-percentile Avoids Negatives score is troublesome. Quarterbacks can survive a missed throw here or there, but turnovers and poor decisions often follow players from college to the NFL.

Even more concerning are the situational metrics. His 20th-percentile Third/Fourth Down Grade indicates struggles in the highest-leverage moments of a game, while the 28th-percentile Under Pressure Grade suggests defenses can disrupt him when the pocket collapses.

The most surprising number may be the 4th-percentile Play Action Grade. Given how frequently modern offenses manufacture explosive plays through play-action concepts, that figure stands out dramatically from the rest of his profile.

Photo Credit Frank Hyatt/College2Pro.com